I think that the patent threat will crumble with more and more complex features being implemented on the Open Source cores, like BOOM and so on. I don't think that ideas that are taught commonly at university and are all over GitHub will be able to stay "owned".
The question than will be how close we can come to the proprietary systems and which use-cases are low-key enough that their cutting edge new innovations don't make a difference.
I think the microcontroller space will be wholly owned by RISC-V in the long run. For cheap, commoditized stuff, open is better than closed for everyone. For the high performance stuff, the manufacturer still needs to protect their investment, especially because the will need to invest more and more for ever smaller gains.
Do you think that makes sense or am I phantasizing? :D
Someone eventually has to build the hardware and that's the really expensive part. Arm has the upper hand here as they deliver more than just an ISA, they can sell you a whole silicon and software stack including engineering expertise to help get your thing to market. Plus they control the ecosystem so you're not going to run into odd edge cases (e.g. Loongson which is sorta MIPS). Not saying that companies like SiFive are not competent but they are just one player in what will become a very big game.
Do you think that fabs like TMSC or global foundries will develop tools to support IP designers with this, to drive their own business?
There is stuff like that going on in PCB design, where manufacturers make free design software, or distributors making footprint libraries.
> There is stuff like that going on in PCB design, where manufacturers make free design software, or distributors making footprint libraries.
Totally different things. Asking TMSC how to design a RISC-V chip is akin to asking Advanced Circuits or OSH Park how to design an Intel motherboard. They can make the board for you, but they dont design it.
It's not about asking them how to design a chip, it's about them providing the tools needed to go from a Verliog design to something they can manufacture.
There is eFabless, among other efforts in the vein you describe, they do a multi project wafer shuttle thing that google sponsors using skywater. It's supposedly an open source PDK, I haven't used it.