OpenAI with 400 employees are breaking Google’s ankles on the court. What do you guys think? Is Google in trouble? Their entire business model is in jeopardy. If Google releases a oroduct as as good as ChatGPT 4, which is unlikely, they’ll kill their revenue. If they don’t release it, they’ll gradually lose market share. They are in an unwinnable situation.
Google is only temporarily behind. It will release a decent model in max 6-12 months, and not just Google, everyone will release a model, even open source will have some. OpenAI is enjoying a short window of exclusivity.
Just playing casually with NanoGPT (https://github.com/karpathy/nanoGPT) with a desktop holding a 2080ti, it's really really really clear to me that the path to get to a pre-fine-tuned LLM is remarkably easy. RLHF is the piece above this which appears to also be surprisingly easy (if Sam Altman is to be believed). The juice is making these tools incredibly easy.
I think the barrier to entry here is low. OpenAI is ahead now, but I doubt that lives forever.